Interesting feature to begin the race week in Hallandale, an optional claiming allowances going 8.5 furlongs on Tapeta Track and it appears to be battle between two horsemen known for their move-ups.
One can go either way and each of these look good to repeat their last effort–if capable of repeating their last effort. Each should be a decent price.
Since claimed, Anatolian (15-1) has worked her way down the ladder but has been upwardly mobile in her last two. She meets a much tougher set here, but the manner in which she won her last indicates anything’s possible.
Check out her run at Gulfstream Park, JUN 18, Race 2 in which she was shuffled back to last by mid far-turn, angled to the far outside into the lane and the Mike Maker debut-claim absolutely flew home late to nail down the win.
Then there’s the effort here of Nana Fanny (8-1) on MAY 22, Race 6, when after her Claudio Gonzalez claim, she returned to run third on turf vs. tougher before blowing out an optional field through the stretch, improving her AW record to 2-for-5, both wins at today’s trip.
We’re splitting the baby by taking the latter who has better spacing and which has been working sharply for her toughest test to date, in for a pricey $75K here. Hector Berrios takes the return call.
We’ll take Nany Fanny at 9-2 or greater and quinellas with Anatolian and Therearenorules (4-1), getting class relief in her first Tapeta tour and a switch to Edwin Gonzalez.
3 Responses
You sure have got me bewildered. I simply can’t comprehend why you put restrictions on your bets, as you do in this race writing that the plug must be 9-2 or forget it! What’s wrong with a plodder at 4-1, paying $10.00? Or, going off at 3-1, an $8.00 payoff on a win ticket. Geez, I’ll take 3-1 all day long. Quiniellas? The smallest wagering pool on the board – for the novice and bettors with a shrinking bankroll.
One last time on this WMC: It’s about price, not about horse.
My personal betting line is my opinion of a horse’s chances and/or what may represent proper value. It’s meant as a guide.
If I say 4-1, e.g., I might take 3-1 based on other factors when I wager. But I would never take 8-5, Capice?
P.S. You’re wrong about quinellas. Ought to study the exacta and quinella comparisons, you may be surprised as to where the value may lie.
Mr. Pricci: You write ‘it’s about price’; this is what has me scratching me butt. Isn’t Thoroughbred racing’s number one attraction simply the opportunity to gamble? Isn’t the desire to make money the second attraction? So, why would anyone not bet a plodder they have selected if the odds are at least 3-1 (3-1 my cutoff point)? Eight bucks is a nice return for every two bucks bet. To ignore a selection because the odds are 9-2 makes no sense whatsoever.
Yes, many quiniellas pay more than half of an exacta. Still a silly wager IMO.
As to my cutoff point of 3-1, there is no guarantee that a blue blood or plug with odds of 2-1 or 1-2 is going to win. When a ticket is cashed, it should at least cover three or four future bets.