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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing


HALLANDALE BEACH, FL, February 9, 2024 – On our first pass through the 12-entrant G3 Sam F Davis Memorial, we left six horses open as possible winners.

Not only were we still flummoxed on the second pass, but the questions that lingered did not provide any clues as to the most probable winner.

We decided that price will be our guide, and will be betting the biggest price shot among our six possible victors:

Fulminator at 15-1, for Tampa stalwart Arnaud Delacour, especially when giving the reins to Daniel Centeno, who got acquainted in Fulmineo’s return from a brief layup, finishing second in his Tampa two-turn dirt debut, earning a competitive Thoro-Graph figure, made sense.

However, we’ll need at least half the price, $7.50-1, to complete the play.


G3 SAM F DAVIS                                                                                           Race 10

PROJECTED FAVORITE: 6-Agate Road (7-2) was scratched from Gulfstream turf stakes last week to await this; big late kick will help his chances in a speed-filled matchup.

BEST VALUE: 11-Fulmineo (15-1) as above

EXOTICA: 7-Copper Tax (5-1) 5-for-7 lifetime, excellent figures. 9-Change of Command (3-1) gets Tyler and blinkers. 4-Crazy Mason (10-1) big turn of foot off slow pace in win over surface. 4-No More Time (10-1) earned competitive figures twice at GP’s flat mile. 3-Patriot Spirit (6-1) won key-race sprint in TBD debut. 12-Elysian Meadows (15-1) 2-for-2 sprinting, now stretches for Mott with appropriate pedigree.


PROJECTED WINNER: 1-Dream Concert (3-1) has tactical speed the pole and lack kick; stalks the pace and pounces at headstretch.

BEST VALUE: 8-Poiema (8-1) circling back to best given solid placing in surface debut; makes use of tactical speed chasing the pace from a outside draw.

EXOTICA: Flag Woman (15-1) Horse for Course and Distance, late kick aids given speedy pace projection.


PROJECTED WINNER: 2-Nakatomi (9-5), freshened and dropping from graded company; Ward is 25% with 90 days+ returnees, 28% in non-graded stakes. Want 7-5 minimum.

BEST VALUE: 7-Sibelius (3-1) back in top form and won this race last year prepping for Meydan; repeats the pattern.

EXOTICA: 4-Super Ocho (5-1) on forward-looking line. 5-Mish (10-1) [2] 1-1-0 over surface and [5] 3-1-1 at the trip.

Maiden Allowances Race 9

PROJECTED FAVORITE: 1-Stents and Statins (4-1) It’s Chad returning from turf layup

BEST VALUE: 7-Active (12-1) has never taken a backward step on the Thoro-Graph scale, earning race’s co-fastest figure last time out.

EXOTICA: 2-Lucevan La Stella (12-1): Albertrani profitable 26% with second-time starters. 4-Victoria’s Dancer (15-1): Throw out last, good figures in three prior starts. 10-She’s So Sexy (20-1) paired top last out, Bennett 19% first start off the claim.

Preliminary Allowances Race 11

PROJECTED WINNER: 3-Royalty Interest (2-1): First start since losing at odds-on in 2023 Florida Oaks; Chad profitable in all relevant categories.

BEST VALUE: 7-Tap It Up (10-1): appeared in need of last; barn profitable given spacing off the return and recent blowout 2nd fast of 23 peers the week of FEB 3.

EXOTICA: 12-Double Cosmo Girl (10-1) earned lifetime top after rise to this level last out. 11-Lady Thor (15-1) has show improvement in both starts at 4 and Dini profitable in first start off maiden breaker.

When more than one horse is listed in one category, preferences are in order posted

this is a live column, remainder of TBD Late Pick 5 will be updated throughout the weekend

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2 Responses

  1. Allow me to offer 10-West Saratoga as a possible chicken dinner here with a horse that will wrongfully be assessed by most in the crowd as unable to sustain a bid. The 7 October fade is just one race against a very strong group, and the 13 January return can be attributed to the layoff. Expect a very strong showing today.

    No. Horse Race 10 M/L TTT

    6 Agate Road 7/2 6.44
    10 West Saratoga 8 6.71
    7 Copper Tax 5 9.75
    9 Change of Command 3 10.75
    2 Tireless 12 12.52
    3 Patriot Spirit 6 12.56
    11 Fulmineo 15 12.85
    12 Elysian Meadows 15 15.07
    4 Crazy Mason 10 15.50
    5 No More Time 10 18.75
    8 Everdoit 30 21.04
    1 El Principito 50 32.27

  2. Long time no hear, TTT. Welcome back!

    Can’t argue with your selection bit I guess I was one of those who couldn’t forgive his one-paced finish on the race you referenced.

    This Davis was very difficult race for me to assess. May the best horse win and all come home safe.

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