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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing

A POTPOURRI OF PREDICTABLY PRESCIENT PLAYS FROM AROUND NORTH AMERICA

A slow, albeit potentially fruitful, weekend on the road to Lexington and the Breeders’ Cup World Championships in November. Meanwhile, this week’s attempt to gather some shipping money along the way.

BELMONT PARK

Race 5 Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Magic Attitude (1-1)

THE BET: Straight to win at even money, boxed exacta with Neige Blanche

EXOTICA: Exacta wheel with Magic Attitude on top, extra ticket with Neige Blanche second. Rolling Double Magic Attitude with Likeable

Race 6 Maiden Allowances

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Likeable (5-2)

THE BET: Likeable to win, if not alive in Double, exacta box with Engrave (1-1)

EXOTICA: Trifecta key Likeable first, with Engrave and Repo Rocks (6-1) second and third

CHURCHILL DOWNS

Race 9 Allowances

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Redemption Day (7-2)

THE BET: SIAMESE (6-1) to win at 3-1 or greater, exacta box with Redemption Day

EXOTICA: Super-exotic part wheel keying Redemption Day and Siamese first with each other first and second, plus improving Golden Curl (5-2) and sharp worker Loving Moment (10-1) and and third.

WOODBINE

Race 1 Maiden Allowances

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Flame Zapper (2-1)

THE BET: Flame Zapper to win at 2-1 or greater

EXOTICA: Key-box Flame Zapper first and second in exactas and trifectas with Malibu Edge (5-2) and Awesome Wok N Roll (6-1)

Race 7 G3 Singspiel Stakes

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: Nakamura (5-2)

THE BET: Nakamura to win at 5-2 or greater, box exacta with Admiralty Pier (4-1)

EXOTICA: Trifecta part wheel Nakamura and Admiralty Pier with each other first and second, filling in verticals with Standard Deviation (8-1), Tiz a Slam (6-1) and Skywire (7-2) beneath.

Race 9 Grade 1 Woodbine Mile

MOST PROBABLE WINNER: War of Will (2-1)

THE BET: March to the Arch (5-2) to win at 5-2 or greater

EXOTICA: Vertical part wheel keying War of Will and March to the Arch with each other first and second, adding Starship Jubilee (4-1) and Admiralty Pier (10-1) below.

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14 Responses

  1. Woodbine rarely gets mentioned among the best, clean and presentable tracks with some famous jockeys who been have riding there for yrs. Even its turf looks neat and watchable. No respect!

  2. Actually, there was a time when industry surveys rated track’s in-house closed-circuit simulcast presentations. Woodbine finished first several years in a row. Have not seen that industry survey in several years, wonder why?

  3. John, So appreciate you (and Keith as well) for evaluating and processing all the numbers. Just curious, what is the “one armed Paper Man’s” favorite libation? No USPS mind you, but I/m sure I can come up with an alternative plan for a One Armed Plantation Paper Man delivery.

    Keith, Given your magic with taking on the Odd’s On choices of late, I’ll keep an open mind on Admiralty Pier. Will be watching the Tote. Way too dangerous if no one goes out with him. But what the heck do I know, I only try to handicap the handicappers. You guys are my first to review and wager with by the way. Anyhoot, my wagon is loaded with the HRI numbers, and I am looking forward to a fun day win or lose day. If I do hit for a little something extra, thinking of both you and Broadway both, I promise that I’ll write a check for the local food bank. So many out of work and really hurting right now. My fear is that we are not going to change any time soon however. We all need to wear masks for now. Only thing we can contribute. That and gifting money and food. Riders Up! Good Day to all!

    1. Love ya’ McD.

      In lieu of anything for me, whatever you donate to a food bank is plenty enough for my heart and soul. Thank you.

      If Keith and I can, help to entertain, inform and hopefully enrich, that is plenty reward enough.Thank you.

      May our horses have safe and speedy journeys…

    2. Hey there “McD”

      It looks like the jockey didn’t get the memo that he was going to be out on the lead and needed to set SLOWER fractions. That was obviously his best shot at an upset or to hang around for a bigger piece of the pie. The King Edward Stakes back in August he went 23.90 for the opening quarter, 46.23 for the half and 109.24 for three quarters. In the Ricoh Woodbine Mile he goes even FASTER 23.66 for the opening quarter, 46.14 for the half and 109.12 for three quarters.

      Oh well, turn the page and on to next week. Hopefully you had a profitable day and you’re local Food Bank “THANKS YOU”

      1. With a wide array of “loft wedge” chip shots in my bag John, I did manage to collect on half the double payout. Oddly enough, I did have the Win wagers all for $2. “Taking care of the Win” first and spreading the remaining grass seed over the rest of the card. I would have been busted long along if I didn’t set myself up with a $20 to $30 limit each outing. Leaves me a plus balance where on “Bigly” days, like BC, I can double or even triple down. “Never leave the track broke”, and always have some enjoyment in the sport is all.

      2. KP, I ended up going as an under only. Agree the jock never tried for separation which negated his chances for the win. Maybe next time.

  4. What am I missing re: Shirl’s Speight in Woodbine Mile?

    Undefeated improving 3YO broke 1:20 for 7f by 9 in maiden victory, then won 8.5f G3 as pleased.

    Would gladly take 8-1 ML, but unlikely to get that price.

    Love those $.20 TRIs anyway. LOL

    1. You’re not missing anything there, I. I gave her a good look and decided that the task was too tough. If she takes another step forward, however, I could be wrong at the top of my voice in here. Safe trip!

  5. Just for transparency Wendell, Broadway John is indeed human, and I don’t always end up with a profitable ending. I sure have fun trying however and do not plan on giving up on the races any time soon. To be honest Wendell, the same dollars in my account just keep churning over and over. Kind of like with the back yard garden, spring to fall is all.

    Number of Bets
    20
    Win Percentage
    10.00%
    ROI
    -0.49
    Wagered
    $31.20
    Payoff
    $16.00
    Profit/Loss
    -$15.20

    1. McD, Like you, I could have had a better day, but then they couldn’t catch me after a winning even-money shot, the Euro filly, and beating a 3-5 in the next with a 2-1 chance, producing a DD worth $25.40, more than double the parlay!

  6. Next time I read a blog, Hopefully it does not disappoint me just as much as this one. I mean, I know it was my choice to read, nonetheless I really believed you would have something interesting to talk about. All I hear is a bunch of complaining about something you can fix if you were not too busy seeking attention.

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