Ever heard the expression safety is numbers? From a handicapping perspective, it’s true in horse racing, too.
A big field almost assures a good pace, an honest one on dirt anyway. You can better depend on trips. There’s more crowding, yes, but it takes race rider out of a jockey’s hand, forcing him to react.
Generally speaking, the less a jockey needs to think, the better. Not knocking, just sayin’.
Wednesday’s G2 Honorable Miss “:attracted a field of six. Not only is it widen open based on talent, based on everyone’s ‘A’ race, but I’m not sure where the pace is coming from.
All will will try to break sharply, or all will take back soon after the start. “Catching a flyer” notwithstanding, not sure which rider will go on with it. Not sure if one rider will wind up “walking the dog.” Decisions, decisions.
We’re going with a lean on Chalon (5-2). She is capable to adapting to circumstances. So is her rider, Javier Castellano, who will be saving ground from post two. The kicker for me was the turn-back to 6 furlongs. I believe it to be her best game.
At 5-2, her odds are fair given the competition. Favorite Mia Mischief (7-5) is a tad faster but perhaps a tad more than 6 furlongs is her best trip.
Don’t know what to do with Ours To Run (7-2). But any filly who has won six straight with Johnny drawn outside in a short field gets my attention. So maybe win/place on Chalon makes sense.
YESTERDAY: Fire Key, a victim of a bit of a wide trip, never had it easy as her rider’s hand was forced, finishing a very game second at 7-1. When an honest mare she is!