HALLANDALE BEACH, FL., Halloween, 2021 — As everyone knows, the Del Mar Turf Club will play host to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships next weekend for only the second time after making its debut in Oceanside in the Fall of 2017.
The question is do the local horses enjoy a home course advantage? As a Horse for Course guy myself, the answer is obvious: Horses that enjoy a course preference will always have an edge on those who don’t or those unfamiliar with their surroundings and footing.
For handicappers also fond of this particular angle, the posit is a no-brainer; of course Western horses have an edge when it comes to racing in the Golden State. California is a different racing world; you don’t see many Eastern tracks offering ship-and-win incentives, do you?
Anyhow, we looked up Breeders’ Cup results from Del Mar four years ago and this is what we’ve found: Let’s just say the results validated the notion that the event does offer a true world championship opportunity to the participants.
Here are the results, listed by race, race winner, and the scene of the winner’s final prep:
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF: Rushing Fall, Keeneland
DIRT MILE: Battle of Midway, Remington Park
JUVENILE TURF: Mendelssohn, UK-Newmarket
DISTAFF: Forever Unbridled, Saratoga
JUVENILE FILLIES: Caledonia Road, Belmont
TURF SPRINT: Stormy Liberal, Belmont
FILLY & MARE SPRINT: Bar of Gold, Keeneland
FILLY & MARE TURF: Wuheida, FR-Chantilly
SPRINT: Roy H, Santa Anita
BREEDERS’ CUP MILE: World Appeal, CAN-Woodbine
JUVENILE: Good Magic, Belmont
TURF: Talismanic, FR-Chantilly
CLASSIC: Gun Runner, Saratoga
There it is: 13 winners [no Juvenile Turf Sprint in 2017] which last prepped in four different countries, eight different tracks. Conclusion? It will be more about prevailing biases, based on course dynamics and/or prevailing atmospherics.
Post draw, race shape, running style, and trips, per usual, will determine the outcomes unless, of course, the “best horse” comes with its ‘A+’ game then nothing else matters.
More Handicapping Time Wanted
We understand the concept of time zones is out of the event’s control. But the pill pull at which all 14 races will be drawn begins at 2:30 Pacific and will take several hours. a wasted day for horseplayers. Past performances providers need time to re-jigger the pre-entries, record latest workouts and late-breaking developments.
What’s the difference? There are three days left to sort it all out prior to Friday’s Juveniles card which launches “racing’s biggest weekend of the year?” Well, horseplayers need time beyond the hours spent handicapping. Creating tickets is the most important variable, and with so many disparate wagering opportunities, the more time afforded, the better.
Gambling Advice Takes Time, Costs Money
The Breeders’ Cup consists of 14 races; five juvenile events Friday and nine races for elders Saturday. HRI is changing its selections format for Breeders’ Cup, abandoning the A-B-C approach we use for our regular Saturday audience and will use this approach:
We will offer two horses per race for straight wagering purposes. a Most Probable Winner and Best Race Value selection with suggested odds. Additionally, there will be a maximum of four Exotics Horses per race for use in all vertical slots–exactas, trifectas, and superfectas. The cost is $2 per race.
HRI will list these six horses for the day’s two biggest races in this space; Friday’s Juvenile and Saturday’s Classic. The rest will be available at the aforementioned price; Friday’s additional four races are $8; Saturday’s eight races, $16. Two-day discount package is $20.
Those interested will receive all runners by 11 am each day by email once PayPal informs us payment has been made: The link for making PayPal payments is: mail@johnpricci.com
16 Responses
Good writeup, thanks. I’m glad DMR runs Wednesday and Thursday so we can get some sort of read on how the track is playing, but there is only one turf sprint, all the turf routes are exactly one mile, and all the dirt routes are exactly one mile. We will get some limited idea, but obviously when the Euros and the east coast horses show up in the gate on Friday & Saturday, it is bound to look way different on the grass.
Now that the UBS Arena is up and running, can we please get a BC back at Belmont? It’s only the most historically important track in American racing history. Nobody touches their resume.
Doc, You’re welcome. I’ve done the foreign video work and, as expected, Europe is bringing some talented runners. Don’t know how they would fare but I was ready to dismiss the Japanese out of hand based on past failures but some of theirs have impressed. We’ll have to see all following today’s post draw. There have been discussions to get New York back into the mix. Of course they, and the game, needs that to happen. Only issue is the weather, which would be the case in KY, too. We shall see.
Will I be allowed to post my BC selections ? Total cost: $0, which is fair market value for my advice.
Of course, Dan, love when HRI bettors share their thoughts…
That’s an LOL Dan. But handicappers must adopt a positive attitude–not cocky., just positive.
The 2017 Mile winner was World Approval
2017 BC Winners – where they won before their BC win
Rushing Fall: Keeneland, Belmont
Battle Of Midway: Santa Anita (3), Del Mar
Mendelssohn: Curragh
Forever Unbridled: Fair Grounds, Aqueduct, Sam Houston, Oaklawn, Belmont, Churchill, Saratoga
Caledonia Road: Saratoga
Stormy Liberal: Santa Anita (7)
Bar Of Gold: Saratoga (2), Aqueduct (2), Belmont (2)
Wuheida: Newmarket, Chantilly
Roy H: Santa Anita (4), Belmont
World Approval: Gulfstream (2), Tampa Bay (2), Arlington, Saratoga (2), Monmouth, Pimlico, Woodbine
Good Magic: NONE
Talismanic: Compiegne, Saint Cloud (3), Maisons-laffitte
Gun Runner: Churchill (4), Keeneland, Fair Grounds (2), Oaklawn, Saratoga (2)
When will the HRI selections be available for purchase.?
Thanks for asking Max, pay at your earliest convenience and selections will be emailed as advertised above.
I love the guy and this is no shot at all at him – but how do you go to Mike Smith on Art Collector while Jose Ortiz is without a mount in the Classic?? I know this will be called a case of ‘local knowledge’, but hard to believe Bill Mott’s input was given any consideration here. I seriously doubt this would have been his decision.
Mott upset the Belmont Stakes with Mike Smith aboard. Horsemen remember and are superstitious. In this case, given the draw, Mike could be the perfect fit…
Fair enough, and for all I know, it was his call and it will work out to perfection; the horse is absolutely good enough to win this (stacks up even to Knicks Go etc on his best BRIS, though his TG doesn’t really hit the level of Knicks Go). It’s just that as a horseman who watches Jose Ortiz ride every day all year, it seems like a hard move to understand.
I’m also admittedly extremely NY racing biased, and I am sure that often leaks into my perception of decisions such as these, and who the right guy would have been.
You may be exactly right Doc, after all we’re all educated-guessing, even the horsemen.
From the sample of the past 2 days, it looks like the turf course has been playing pretty fairly in terms of pace position. Horses have won coast to coast, pressing the leaders, and closing from near the back.
I find Del Mar to play honestly on both surfaces as a rule, obviously there will be certain days… Of course when it comes to dirt, there’s no speed like SoCal speed. That’s not to say bias; just fast.
Friday November 5, 2021
8th-Bubble Rock(8-1) Play with the 1,7,11
9th-Corniche(5/2) Play with the 4,9,10
10th- Modern Games(5-1) Play with the 2,3,4,5
Good luck to all and as always “Let’s go get the bad guys”, Vin O’
Jack Christopher is scratched out of the Juvenile.