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The Conscience of Thoroughbred Racing


Let me get this off my chest: I do believe that Guarana is a very special filly and that she will take the Coaching Club American Oaks with style. But I’m avoiding the five-horse field and choosing the 2-5 early line favorite.

Looked at the Shuvee which also offered a difficult to beat favorite, Wow Cat, who more than held her own at the Grade 1 level in 2018. But, again, we’re looking at a Chad Brown early line favorite (9-5).

And so we landed on the Caress Stakes, a 5-1/2 furlong turf sprint in which we believe the Chad Brown early favorite, Significant Form (5-2) may be vulnerable. (That probably puts her right into the circle)!

But we’re opting for Fire Key (5-1), a filly turf sprinter we’ve liked since back in the day when Pat Kelly was training her. She wound up with new connections and Joe Catanese III took over the training, which didn’t work out.

However, since Jimmy Ryerson has led her over for her last two starts, not only did she improve with a win and a placing in two starts but Ryerson actually injected some speed into the now six year old mare.

And this in one hard-hitting mare, as her (29) 8-8-2 lifetime slate suggests.

While the New York-bred has made use of her newly found speed, that doesn’t mean she’s become a runoff. It’s more likely that Jose Ortiz, the best speed rider in the game, put her into her races sooner. And if not for tiring in the last few jumps, she would be 2-for-2 in this barn.

Now tactical, and given an inside draw, we expect that Ortiz will get position on the fence and either pocket-up or set the pace at a friendlier trip that the longer sprints she’s been competing in recently.

Fire Key has run well given this spacing and she handles any type of ground (thundershowers in the forecast), giving her an edge on classy, much faster Morticia (3-1), the probable post time favorite, who doesn’t handle off turf as well as she does firm footing.

So we’re taking Fire Key to win, but 3-1 is the absolute acceptable minimum.

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9 Responses

  1. If they run today at Saratoga, I’ve got a horse for you………News flash!!!!! It’s summer time, and in the summer it gets hot! Been getting hot for thousands of years I’m told. Suddenly, everything has changed. We can’t run races when it’s hot or when it’s cold, jockeys are allowed to play bumper cars during the running of the race, and stewards are political non-horse-people neophytes with half a brain. Call me a bitter codger, but in my day, horses were horses and men were men. We ran races in the heat, we ran races in hailstorms, hell (can you say hell on John Pricci website?), I recall one time back in the 60s we ran races during a meteorite shower. No more, things must be just right for the races to be run. We would not want anybody on the left end of the spectrum to get offended. I know, I know, it’s Donald Trump’s fault, just hope we get to see the races today at beautiful Saratoga. Will post another winner for your pleasure shortly. Oh no, just heard it on CNN, summer has been cancelled. Somebody has to do something about Trump!!!!

  2. To answer your question, hell yes! “H-E-Double Hockey Sticks” (name the movie)

    So who’s the horse? The HRI Faithful are waiting breathlessly.

    Oh, and sorry, no Drumpf spoken here… Racist banter is prohibited

  3. What a day of racing today for me; have 7 races with isolated numbers; payday at the races!!!!!! Just as you opted for the Caress, as a blind man and his horse from 42nd street could see that Guarana “can’t lose,” rather than comment on that race, will try and provide you with the tail-end of that double. They named this horse after me, that should be enough of a hint. He definitely could be diagnosed as suffering from a terrible case of “Jacque Who” syndrome, and returns to state-bred company today. It will be a good day for the Bad.

  4. Thank you Chico and welcome aboard; excellent idea trying to optimize profits by using Guarana (2-5) as a daily double key. Now all I have to do is find a horse to couple with the CCAO favorite that likes to finish second a lot.

    True story: I was having lunch with my wife Toni in the Belmont Terrace the day Jacques Who finally broke his maiden. And I bet on him, might have paid as much as $7. Finished second something like 10 times consecutively.

    Anyway, he was a gorgeous gray horse named for his owner, Jacques Wimpfheimer, who at one time served as the TOBA President. You sound pumped: May all your horses have safe and speedy journeys!

  5. I too was at Belmont that day in that 4th floor small area about 100 yards from you. Andy Beyer always sat in that area as well before he was a household word. Also watched Secretariat win the Belmont from that location. Speaking of hot, that was also a very hot day as I recall.

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