Hallandale beach, FL, May 14, 2026 — I remember when I first laid eyes on the Kentucky Derby past performances, thinking this was the deepest, most wide-open Derby in memory.
I was not alone in that, and it proved true in the running. Then I surveyed the Oaks field and while a true divisional leader did emerge. I did not know with any certitude. This weekend, we are being treated to more of the same.
Without making the usual deep dive, Preakness 151 is impossible. While there is plenty of visible talent, the dynamics also make this classic inscrutable. More on that later this week.
I just saw the Black-Eyed Susan PP’s and wondered what did fans and bettors do to deserve these handicapping challenges? Favorites are fairly well defined, but choosing between them is educational guesswork.
Here are the Black-Eyed Susan A-B-Cs. What we hope to avoid is a D or F grade in the Win and vertical Pools.
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LAUREL PARK Friday — Race 13
G2 BLACK-EYED SUSAN
A: 3-HOLLY’S HOLIDAY (6-1) won second straight when dead-heating at OP, showing marked improvement, set to peak with McPeek in LAY 3 scenario, late runner has tactical speed when needed and gets switch to Prat. 9-A.P.’s GIRL (5-1) raced between horses back, saved ground at the turn and just missed in hard earned placing, her LRL and stakes debut, Eurton profitable with routers, look for one run here beneath Irad. 10-My Miss Mo (7-2) was declared from Oaks and winds up here.’ last two two-turners were excellent, quick blowout for this and Tyler on the re-ride.
B: 2-Ivy Girl (15-1), 5-Baaken Poppa (7-2)
C: 7-Jumping the Gun (7-2), 4-Savor It (30-1)
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On balance, Preakness 151 is less difficult than Derby 152—and I deserve the right to be wrong about thar. The division lacks a stand-alone key horse now, amd that includes the preps. And even the keys raise questions.
We left nine of 19 horses open on Derby Day. Any one of six loom as serious contenders tomorrow. But only after they challenge Horse of the Year Sovereignty and the top older handicap horses in the Breeders’ Cup Classic will anyone have an idea. Either an Alpha will emerge, or he won’t. Until then, what remains is betting on the hand that’s deal
LAUREL PARK Grade 1 Preakness Stakes Race 13
A: 2-Ocelli (6-1) late rally type moved strongly into a still-strong Derby pace, took the lead a sixteenth out but could not sustain when third. Earned a new pace top after strong late rally in prior despite finishing greenly. Earned a career best final on the Thoro-Graph scale. Lots of speed signed on, inside draw where Tyler can work out a mid-pack trip and get first run on other ralliers, Beckwith profitable with routers and with all 2006 starters. 1-Taj Mahl (5-1) has high speed, class, rated back when on the lead in Tesio. Undefeated in three career starts, on this surface, and is training up a storm since his latest. Figures to be pressured, unless able to rate. Find out more about this freaky individual today.
B: 10-Napoleon Solo (8-1)
C: 12-Incredibolt (5-1), 9-Iron Honor (9-2)
Players are allowed to move grades up or down but not more than one grade
19 Responses
Tell the truth John- you love puzzles like this!!
These skull busters bring out the fire in your belly!!’
I know it does for me. My only problem is that I refuse to guess when it comes to these wide-open Grade 1 affairs.
Keep the faith
Ya’ got me, Jack!
But last week they got me. When you spread and lose all, it takes a while to recover.
My problem is that not one horse has jumped out as a certain key for me, whatever the price; knowledge becomes paralyzing.
Like they say it’s one long game. One race or a series of races are not that important. It’s the long run where one big hit makes up for a great deal of disappointment.
Let her rip John we all got faith in your hard work analysis. Toughest thing in the world to put your opinion on the line for evaluation.
You did it your entire career and won awards for it.
Grazie
Interestingly, or not,I have seen so called ” Xperts” pick just about ten different horses out of 14 which it tells either that there is a lack of interest and many just pick a horse with any excuse or that there isn’t a horse sticking out.My logic would suggest to use the Russell husband/wife ,Taj Mahal since he s won at the ( Laurel) track closing well in each race,with the same rider. Distance shouldn’t be a problem even if the rail could cause hesitation with so much speed on the outside.” Logical” but not my numerical pick,or even one of my top two.At the KDerby my longshot pick cane in third and after the race I liked Ocelli..Law and Behold,after doing my actuarial deductions voila’ ,came up with the same two horses,Ocelli and Incredibolt! No biases just numbers. There is a speed of the speed horse,Napoleon Solo,from ” Man from UNCLE”,and who knows how far,how much challenged will he be? Then there is a questionable,interesting horse in ” The Hell we Did” who could be a factor since nobody knows what he will do.Iron Honor got bumped last time otherwise he,too could have been unbeaten..My picks for this race at Laurel,which is not Pimlico,in many ways,but with a longer stretch,I believe are: 2-12) -10,1,9,–5 3 7 14
,plus 1-2,11 9,plus 9 WPS..Logic should show Taj Mahal in the exacta,triple gimmicks.Loves to win at the track and it could have won with better # if it was challenged. Easy wins deserve more points,if I wont be wrong.Laurel,only worth a $ 100 worth of bets,nothing against it,I just never cared for it,might as well join Timonium and Bowie in the memory lane.Have not heard or seen anyone with an Excited ‘ Sure’ pick in this 2026 Preakness.Maybe the Russell couple will celebrate,and I will be happy for them.
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PS:Black Eyed Susan: Not a mention of # 8, Majestic Lucia? My only play on this race,WPS.Could not ignore that last race,or even the previous one at 7 F… ” whether I’m right or whether I’m wrong”.. i gotta be me..
Sammy Davis Jr. I gotta be me; my father’s favorite song!!
Good luck JGR in your betting
Sammy Davis Jr was very talented.Frank Sinatra helped him in Las Vegas….: his way ‘ The Sammy Davis golf open was the only golf tournament I ever attended when I lived in Mass.Not my game or type to kill hrs. Could not watch how men hit the balls,how they swing, what they re wearing,etc… Not enough women around..if any.😍 Get me a hockey stick!!
..
Jack, see if you can find a copy of a 50+ year old album “Sammy Davis Live at the Sanda.” One of the best live albums–ever. Your father would love it …
Thanks
Had to take a stand somewhere. JG
As stated, a wide-open affair.
So many times we regretted not having used One additional horse whiçh showed something that we usually do not ignore,and this time I had to add it to the bets.# 3, Crudder, showed some losing kick in a couple of races and after re checking, x the last time,the PP s, I’m including him in the gimmics.1-2 12 3 9 plus 3-1 2 12 9,plus 3 underneath 2-12. Ahhh,I feel better and can now throw those PP pages away. Not many horses can close the last f at 12 seconds or less.Total $ 140 worth of bets or ripped receipts. Can do,can do.
On the Black E Susan my pick had a slow start then plodding along ” with the best view” from the rear and then when I gave up on it it starts slowly gaining on dead horses,goes wide at the stretch,going too late and coming in fourth.The favorite won easily ok,fine but why does Junior Alvarado seem to ride horses as if every race is a marathon? Can he get off among leaders or that is his riding MO,to try to close late as he has done with most ot Mott’ s horses? Has anyone ever seen him among the early leaders in any $ race? Jus wonderin..
My filly had issues at the break but that was no major excuse, he was flat …
More than ever I was rooting x the Russell couple a nice looking,humble duo reminding me of some Hollywwod characters movie.She s winning at a30 % clip ? Who knew? Maybe Sheldon Rissell got out gamed by the Monmouth heir to JoeBravo or maybe TM did not have it but he e folded while the Napoleon Solo horse, the speed of the speed of all horses involved WITH A 127 (?) SPEED Figure IN HAND, Won easily
Paco has lots of fans especially
in the NY-NJ areas and this win will keep HIM IN many horse people
minds come Saratoga and other Big Races. He deserves a graduation out of the NJ shore track My main pick came in Fourth again but closing late is a bad habit,just like seconditis and if he will be in the Belmont race behind the Tempo horse ,i ‘ll have another losing bet.He has run out of excuses. Wonder if some Speed aficionados got rewarded,as mentioned moons ago in a Klein Speef Ratings horse betting book..: Speed Kills ,or becomes Suicidal
How can we guess?
.
GM JGR
For what it’s worth I won’t take away the kudos for Paco and his triple crown victory.
However, his riding style on an everyday basis in my opinion is reckless. He has had a ton of suspensions throughout the years based on his riding style.
Now it can be argued that the great Angel Cordero had an incredible amount of suspensions in his career.
Cordero was a daring rider who took chances and went through more tight spaces than perhaps any other rider in history.
Lopez basically rides went he is in a closing position like he is in a pin ball game banging off opponents with no regard for their safety. Personally if the game was inforced he would not have been able to ride at Fair Grounds this winter.
Anyway just my thoughts.
Win,baby Win ! Would rather have such a jockey than one who hesitates. Would not compare anyone to Angel Cordero jr,but I’m sure that it will be a compliment to Paco ,Irad and anyone else,and not necessarily Puerto Rican born.Cordero scared types like Eddie Maple.Ms. Krone was aggressive,too.Diane Nelson was posing on her mounts . Who would you rather bet to WIN ?
How indeed. Invariably, guessing too often leads to losing.